Us Iran Deal: Why is the Iran deal still stuck? Hormuz, uranium, US blockade and the unresolved fault lines

Nearly three months after war broke out in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz emerged as the centre of a dangerous global energy crisis, the United States-Israel and Iran still appear far from sealing a final agreement despite intense diplomatic activity and repeated claims of progress from both sides.Even after US President Donald Trump claimed on Sunday that a deal could be announced “shortly”, Washington later appeared to dial down expectations, with senior American officials acknowledging that major sticking points remain unresolved.The proposed framework, if finalised, could end the conflict that erupted after US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease restrictions on Iranian oil exports bringing relief to global energy markets and launch fresh negotiations on Tehran’s nuclear programme. But deep disagreements over uranium enrichment, sanctions relief, Hezbollah, Lebanon and the future balance of power in West Asia continue to complicate the talks.While the ceasefire between Iran and the US has largely held since April 8, military threats and diplomatic negotiations are now unfolding simultaneously, with both sides attempting to negotiate from positions of pressure and leverage.

Rubio’s response to the point of contention

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Monday acknowledged that uranium and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remain central to the negotiations.Speaking in New Delhi, Rubio said the United States would either secure a “good agreement” with Iran or deal with the country “another way.”“The U.S. will give diplomacy every chance to succeed before exploring the alternatives,” Rubio said.He described the current proposal as a “pretty solid thing on the table”.“There is a pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the strait, get the strait open, enter into a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter, and hopefully we can pull it off,” Rubio said.However, Rubio also cautioned that a broader nuclear agreement could not be achieved immediately.“A nuclear deal couldn’t be achieved in 72 hours on the back of a napkin,” he told The New York Times.Rubio’s remarks reflected the growing recognition inside Washington that the uranium issue may become the biggest point of contention in the negotiations.

No rush: What Trump said on the deal

Trump himself appeared to send mixed signals over the emerging agreement.On Saturday, Trump had claimed that the deal had been “largely negotiated”.“Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly,” he wrote on Truth Social.But less than 24 hours later, the US president appeared to soften expectations.“I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side,” Trump posted on Sunday.“Both sides must take their time and get it right. There can be no mistakes!”Trump also insisted that the US naval blockade on Iran would continue until a formal agreement was signed.“The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified and signed,” he said.The shift in tone highlighted growing uncertainty surrounding the negotiations, particularly after reports emerged suggesting Iran had not yet accepted key American conditions regarding uranium and maritime access.

What Iran is saying

Iran has consistently attempted to frame the ongoing negotiations not as a surrender under military pressure, but as a strategic effort to end the war while safeguarding what Tehran describes as its sovereign rights, regional influence and national security interests. Iranian officials have repeatedly stressed that the current discussions are focused on ending the conflict and easing pressure on the country’s economy and maritime access, rather than negotiating away Iran’s nuclear programme.Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said Tehran and Washington had reached conclusions on several issues under discussion, but cautioned that a final agreement was still far from imminent.“We have reached a conclusion on a large portion of the discussion topics this is correct but this does not mean that the signing of an agreement is imminent,” Baghaei said.Baghaei also drew a clear distinction between the ongoing ceasefire discussions and future nuclear negotiations, insisting that uranium enrichment and dismantlement were not currently being discussed.“The focus of the negotiations is on ending the war, and at this stage we are not discussing the details of the nuclear issue,” he said.At the same time, Tehran accused Washington of repeatedly shifting its position during negotiations, something Iranian officials say has complicated efforts to finalise an agreement.“Changes in the positions of US officials create problems for any agreement,” Baghaei said.Iran also maintained a defiant tone regarding military pressure from the United States and Israel. Baghaei said Tehran remained focused on protecting its national interests despite ongoing threats and regional tensions.“We are focused on designing and advancing the best methods to safeguard Iran’s national interests,” Baghaei said.“As a civilized, stylish, and powerful nation, wherever we deem necessary, in whatever way is appropriate, we will respond to the enemy, as we have already done so.”Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian attempted to balance diplomatic outreach with strategic ambiguity on the nuclear issue. While reiterating that Tehran does not seek nuclear weapons, Iran has refused to publicly commit to abandoning uranium enrichment or dismantling its broader nuclear infrastructure.Pezeshkian said Iran remained ready “to assure the world that we are not after a nuclear weapon,” while continuing to insist that Iran has a legitimate and peaceful right to nuclear technology.Iran’s embassy in India also defended Tehran’s nuclear position, describing nuclear technology as an “inalienable” right that Iran “will never relinquish.”Another major pillar of Iran’s position revolves around the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran increasingly sees as its strongest source of leverage in the negotiations. Mohsen Rezaei, a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, declared that managing the strategic waterway was Tehran’s “legal right” and necessary for ensuring national security.“Our fighters have their hands on the trigger today, and our negotiators are working to secure the rights of the Iranian people. The war is being managed on both fronts,” Rezaei said.Iranian state-linked media outlets and Revolutionary Guard-affiliated platforms have also strongly rejected reports suggesting Tehran had agreed to unconditionally reopen the Strait of Hormuz or fully surrender its uranium stockpile. According to Fars News Agency, Iran would continue exercising sovereign control over maritime access, permits and shipping routes through the strategic waterway, while also pushing for a new regional governance mechanism over Hormuz instead of returning to the pre-war status quo.

What is the Hormuz condition?

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as the immediate priority for the United States and Gulf countries.The strategic waterway carries nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas shipments. Since the conflict escalated, Iranian controls on Gulf shipping and the US naval blockade have severely disrupted global energy markets.Under the proposed agreement, Iran would gradually reopen the Strait of Hormuz while the United States would simultaneously end its blockade of Iranian ports.Rubio confirmed that reopening the strait forms a major component of the negotiations.“We have what I think is a pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the straits,” Rubio said.However, Tehran continues to insist that it retains sovereign authority over the waterway.Mohsen Rezaei, a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, said Tehran has the “legal right” to manage the strait.“Our fighters have their hands on the trigger today, and our negotiators are working to secure the rights of the Iranian people. The war is being managed on both fronts,” Rezaei said.Iranian state-linked media also rejected suggestions that Tehran had agreed to “unconditionally” reopen the strait.

Is uranium keeping the deal hanging?

Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium has emerged as the biggest sticking point in the ongoing negotiations between Tehran and Washington, with both sides still divided over how the material should be handled under the proposed agreement.According to multiple reports, the United States wants Iran to dispose of its nearly 2,000 kilograms of enriched uranium, including around 450 kilograms enriched to near-weapons-grade levels. American officials have indicated that sanctions relief and broader economic concessions will depend heavily on Tehran’s willingness to reduce or surrender the stockpile.US officials have maintained that the issue is central to the negotiations. “No dust, no dollars. If no highly enriched uranium is given (up), they will get no relief,” a senior US official said.However, Iran has continued to resist pressure over its nuclear programme, insisting that its enrichment activities are legal and peaceful. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran was “ready to reassure the world that we are not seeking nuclear weapons” but stressed negotiators “will not compromise when it comes to our country’s honor and dignity.”Iranian officials have also indicated that while discussions on ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are progressing, detailed negotiations on uranium disposal and enrichment restrictions could take several more weeks.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio acknowledged the complexity of the issue, saying a final nuclear arrangement “couldn’t be achieved in 72 hours on the back of a napkin.”Analysts say the uranium dispute remains the biggest obstacle preventing the ceasefire framework from turning into a broader and lasting agreement.

Pakistan claims progress in US-Iran negotiations

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif claimed that “lots of ground” had been covered in the ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, saying discussions were “moving in the right direction” amid growing diplomatic efforts to end the conflict.Speaking during his visit to China, Sharif said, “We hope that peace will be restored, and lots of ground has already been covered; things are moving in the right direction.” He also thanked the Chinese leadership for supporting Pakistan’s mediation efforts linked to the talks.His remarks came as Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said negotiations were currently focused on ending the war rather than nuclear issues, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the talks as a “work in progress” with a “pretty solid thing on the table.” US President Donald Trump meanwhile said Washington would not “rush into a deal” with Tehran and that the US blockade would remain in place until an agreement is formally signed.

Washington’s stance: What US wants

The United States has projected cautious optimism over the emerging agreement with Iran, while repeatedly stressing that no final breakthrough has been achieved yet. President Donald Trump initially claimed that the deal had been “largely negotiated” and suggested that an announcement could come soon, before later warning negotiators not to rush the process.“Final aspects and details of the Deal are currently being discussed, and will be announced shortly,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday. However, within hours, he appeared to temper expectations, saying, “I have informed my representatives not to rush into a deal in that time is on our side.”Trump also made clear that the US naval blockade on Iran would remain active until a formal agreement is reached and verified. “The Blockade will remain in full force and effect until an agreement is reached, certified and signed,” he said.US Secretary of State Marco Rubio echoed that cautious approach during his visit to New Delhi, saying Washington believes there is “a pretty solid thing on the table,” particularly regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and future negotiations on Iran’s nuclear programme.“There is a pretty solid thing on the table in terms of their ability to open up the strait, get the strait open, enter into a very real, significant, time-limited negotiation on the nuclear matter, and hopefully we can pull it off,” Rubio said.At the same time, Rubio acknowledged that major disagreements still remain and warned that diplomacy may not succeed. “The U.S. will either have a good agreement with Iran or deal with the country another way,” he said, while adding that Washington would give diplomacy “every chance to succeed before exploring the alternatives.”American officials have also repeatedly stressed that uranium remains the core issue in the negotiations. According to US officials quoted by AP, Iran would need to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium before receiving broader sanctions relief. One US official said that if Iran failed to surrender the stockpile, “there will be no sanctions relief.”Washington has also sought to distinguish the proposed framework from the 2015 Obama-era Iran nuclear deal, which Trump has long criticised. Calling the earlier agreement “one of the worst deals ever made,” Trump insisted that the current negotiations are “THE EXACT OPPOSITE.”The US position currently appears centred on four major objectives: reopening the Strait of Hormuz to stabilise global energy markets, ensuring Iran does not move closer to a nuclear weapon, creating a time-bound framework for future nuclear negotiations and preventing a wider regional escalation involving Israel, Hezbollah and Gulf states.

Is Israel unhappy over ceasefire handling?

Israel has reportedly expressed dissatisfaction over how the United States handled the Iran ceasefire arrangement, with a Wall Street Journal report claiming Tel Aviv was informed only during the final stages of the negotiations.According to the report, Israeli officials were unhappy over the late notice, limited consultation and parts of the proposed framework. Coordination reportedly involved a phone call between US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shortly before the ceasefire was publicly announced.Despite the concerns, Netanyahu publicly backed the temporary truce while drawing a clear red line on Lebanon.“Israel supports President Trump’s decision to suspend strikes against Iran for two weeks subject to Iran immediately opening the straits and stopping all attacks on the US, Israel and countries in the region,” Netanyahu wrote on X.However, Netanyahu later clarified that Lebanon was not part of the ceasefire despite claims from Pakistani mediators.“The United States has told Israel that it is committed to achieving these goals… The two-weeks ceasefire does not include Lebanon,” he said.According to the WSJ report, Israel opposed any attempt to include Lebanon in the broader ceasefire framework, viewing Hezbollah as a separate military front.In a televised address, Netanyahu stressed that the truce was temporary and warned Israel remained ready to resume combat.“We are prepared to return to combat at any moment required. Our finger remains on the trigger,” he said.Netanyahu also said operations against Hezbollah would continue, stating, “We continue to strike it with force.”

According to AP, Reuters and regional reports, the emerging framework includes three major pillars.

1. Nuclear commitments

2. Economic and maritime relief

3. Regional security arrangements

Lebanon and Hezbollah have emerged as another sensitive issue in the negotiations.AP reported that the draft framework includes an end to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.However, Israeli officials have strongly resisted any attempt to formally include Lebanon in the ceasefire arrangement.Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly backed the temporary ceasefire but clarified that “the two-weeks ceasefire does not include Lebanon.”According to The Wall Street Journal, Israeli officials were frustrated by the limited consultation they received from Washington before the ceasefire announcement.Israel reportedly wants freedom to continue military operations against Hezbollah.Rubio also accused Hezbollah of attempting to push Lebanon “back into chaos”.The proposed agreement remains highly conditional.The United States wants:

Iran, meanwhile, wants:

Several issues remain unresolved, including Iran’s missile programme, the future of uranium enrichment and the role of armed regional proxies.

‘Our finger remains on the trigger’

Despite the diplomatic momentum, military tensions continue across the region.Netanyahu warned that Israel remains prepared to resume combat if negotiations fail.“Our finger remains on the trigger. This is not the end of the campaign, but a step along the way to achieving all our objectives,” Netanyahu said.Iranian officials issued similar warnings.“Our fighters have their hands on the trigger today,” Rezaei said.Analysts say the simultaneous military pressure and diplomacy reveal how fragile the negotiations remain.For now, the Gulf appears caught between a potential diplomatic breakthrough and the risk of another rapid escalation that could once again disrupt global energy markets and destabilise the wider region.